EPL Picks July 21

We’re closing in on the end of the season.  At which point we’ll have to wait AT LEAST 2-3 days before the next season resumes – with the evil new faces of Leeds United and (probably) the “oh, you’re here? Oh, you’ve been here all season?  Huh. How about that.” face of West Brom.  And some other irrelevant team predestined for relegation.

Premier League Picks 7/21/2020.

Aston Villa v. Arsenal … Never bet on Arsenal.  Except..

Arsenal? Arsenal! After an inexplicably sloppy and moribund performance versus arch-rival Tottenham, Arsenal looked like a team thinking of Cancun and not trophies. But Arteta rallied the boys and in quick succession they dusted the Premier Leagues top two teams, along the way showing the defensive focus they’ve been missing all season. But, Brian’s Rule #1 of Soccer Gambling: don’t bet on Arenal… not to win, not lose, not to draw…not nothing. They’re good enough to beat the top teams and yet also seem gripped by bouts of indifference and can drop a gimme-game, like this match versus Aston Villa. That said, at +110 it sure seems like good value to put on Arsenal. Hmmm… nope, not gonna do it. DON’T BET ON ARSENAL!

Pick:    ARSENAL WIN (+110)

Watford v. Manchester City

Manchester City had arguably its worst ever performance under Pep Guardiola in losing in the FA Cup semifinal to Arsenal. Watford would love a point here as they hover dangerously just three points over relegation. ManCity may be salty and could put enough goals on Watford to erase the four-goal cushion Watford has over Aston Villa and Bournemouth. Of course, all of that depends on ManCity caring, now that their league season is effectively finished. I don’t like ManCity at -300, so that’s my pick in this walk-away game. Don’t talk yourself into believing that a desperate Watford at +800 is a good buy. It’s suckerbait.

Pick:    ManCity (-300)