Premier League Betting Picks – July 1-July 5
Though Liverpool has clinched the title, important questions remain unanswered. Which four teams will earn England’s automatic Champions League spots for next year? Which teams will be relegated? In an ordinary year, these matters would be important for teams and players, but this year the economic havoc caused by COVID-19 means that losing a spot in the Champions League or falling into the Championship will be especially hard financially given how badly damaged the ledgers are at many clubs.
Risk of Failure is Heightened in the Premier League in 2020!
Though not quite an existential threat, many clubs will be massively damaged by a poor finish to this season… and not just the minnows! If Arsenal misses out on European football altogether, it’s hard to imagine them having the wherewithal or cachet to improve their team substantively, which could put them into a long-term tailspin that, given the Kroenkes’ unwillingness to spend big, could start to feel quasi-permanent.
Anyway, more on the big picture stuff another time! Here are my picks for matches in the upcoming week.
EPL Betting Picks July 1- July 5
Wednesday, July 1: Everton v. Leicester
To me, this is an easy one. I like Leicester to coast smoothly into a top-four finish. At +185 for a win, this pick makes sense to me.
Wednesday, July 1: Bournemouth v. Newcastle
Newcastle… I guess? Newcastle isn’t going to Europe next year and they’re in no danger of relegation. My hunch is that most mid-table teams in this weird COVID season will just play out the string. By contrast, Bournemouth is in a relegation battle, and will have something to play for… but they still aren’t good. Two wins and a draw in their last eleven? I don’t care how hungry they are, I don’t like them at +210 to get a draw and I hate them at +135 for a win.
Wednesday, July 1: Arsenal v. Norwich
Ugh… Real talk? Arsenal is my squad, and they’re betting everything on the FA Cup. They probably aren’t making Europa and sure as hell aren’t going to the Champions League. But surely, they can’t lose to Norwich, right? Bottom-feeding cellar-dwelling Norwich? I won’t be so bold as to predict an Arsenal loss, but if you’ve got a few extra bucks burning a hole in your pocket, Norwich with a win at +585 isn’t the worst bet. I’ll likely semi-hedge by throwing a few on that and a few on a draw (+365).
Wednesday, July 1: West Ham v. Chelsea
This one is easy for me. Not the best value at -175 for a Chelsea win, but I don’t see WestHam bothering them.
Thursday, July 2: Sheffield United v. Tottenham
Before the COVID break, Sheffield United was playing good ball. They’d gone unbeaten in six straight and were sitting pretty with an outside shot at Champions League play. Since coming back, they’ve lost three and gotten a draw against second-worst Aston Villa. This sure feels like a Tottenham win, but at -110 I think it’s crummy value. Walk away from this one.
Thursday, July 2: Man City v. Liverpool
The juiciest matchup has been made a bit irrelevant by Liverpool winning the Premier League. Nothing to play for but pride. I hate betting these kinds of games. Liverpool is +225 if you’re so inclined, but I’d put my shekels on a draw, paying +280.
More Premier League Betting Picks – Matchday 33
More on these matches Friday, but for now here are my picks:
Saturday, July 4: Norwich City v. Brighton
Saturday, July 4: Leicester v. Crystal Palace
Saturday, July 4: Man United v. Bournemouth
Saturday, July 4: Wolves v. Arsenal
Saturday, July 4: Chelsea v. Watford
Sunday, July 5: Burnley v. Sheffield United
Sunday, July 5: Newcastle United v. West Ham
Sunday, July 5: Liverpool v. Aston Villa
Sunday, July 5: Southampton v. Man City
ManCity (-325) … but man, a draw here sure is tempting. I may change this pick.